Ah, summer in the great PNW... does it get any better?

What about real estate, does it get any better in the summer? And what’s going to happen as the days start to get shorter and kids are back in school? Are there consistent trends in the market that we can rely on to guide our buying and selling decisions?

While it ultimately depends on the home you buy or sell, market trends can help guide us. We rely on the Market Action Index (MAI) from Altos Research, which uses inventory, sales, and seasonality to show us how fast the market moves. We look at the trend—moving up, down, or sideways—to tell us where the market is headed.

We’re examining the two biggest markets in our area—Seattle and Bellevue—to see what is happening and what we might expect going forward. These year-over-year charts, spanning the past five years, reveal some consistent trends (with occasional outliers).

Below are two interactive charts for Seattle and Bellevue comparing the year-over-year Market Action Index (MAI) from 2020-2024.

Let’s look at Seattle first:

Hover over image to see interactive year over year comparisons.

We consistently see the MAI trend up in Seattle from the beginning of the year through the spring. There is some variance in the summer months, followed by a fairly consistent downward trend in the last 3-4 months of the year. The exception is 2021 (orange line), where the market took off in November/December, leading to a VERY fast-moving market in the first half of 2022 (blue line). This was fueled by historically low interest rates dropped by the Fed to reduce the economic impact of COVID. This year, the downward trend started a little earlier (black line) after a fast-moving spring, aligning with previous years. This is likely due to the continually higher than normal interest rates and home buyer concern over economic future.

Hover over image to see interactive year over year comparisons.

Bellevue and Seattle may move at different speeds, but the trends are similar. Activity typically picks up from January through the summer and then trends down once the leaves start to fall. 2020 (pink line) is an exception, with Bellevue continuing to push higher through the fall, driven by the COVID-related desire for more space away from city centers. This year, like Seattle, the spring market moved faster than last year and is trending towards a slower fall market, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Looking Forward:

As we head into fall, it’s expected that the market will slow. However, an almost guaranteed Fed rate cut in September could spark a spike in activity, pushing the MAI up for a short time.

For Buyers:

Now is an opportunity. With inventory on the rise and the market slowing, you may not have to compete with other buyers, allowing you to negotiate on price and terms. Recently, we wrote an offer on an overpriced home that had been on the market for almost two months, giving our buyers a great opportunity to negotiate.

For Sellers:

If you plan to sell your home in the coming months, do not worry. Prepare your home well and price it smartly to match market conditions. We still see good homes selling quickly if they are well-prepared and priced appropriately.

Curious about YOUR market?

We can provide zipcode-level market insights to help you make informed buying and selling decisions. If you are interested in learning more, please book a market review meeting.

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