what WE’RE PREDICTING FOR THE post-election market
With the 2024 presidential election upon us, it's natural to wonder how it might affect the housing market. Historically, election years bring economic uncertainty, which can cause both buyers and sellers to hesitate, impacting supply, demand, and mortgage rates. However, looking at the data from the past thirteen elections (1972-2020), we can see that in most cases, home prices have risen during both the election year and the year following.
For instance, the only significant exception was in 2008 during the housing crisis, where prices dipped. But in other election cycles, regardless of the party in power, prices generally increased. The housing market typically adapts to new policies, and while we can expect some short-term shifts, the long-term trends have been positive.
So what can we expect this time around? Both candidates in this election are focused on addressing the housing affordability crisis, though with different approaches. A Harris administration might emphasize affordable housing and urban development, while a Trump administration could focus more on deregulation and tax cuts to stimulate housing demand. No matter who wins, it seems likely that home prices will continue to rise, albeit at a moderate pace. Whether you're thinking of buying or selling, the market will likely remain strong, so your decision should be based on personal timing rather than election results.
Special thanks to Economist, Matthew Gardner for his deep dive analysis on this topic. Read his full study here.
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