Let’s be honest. Uncertainty feels like the default setting these days. Whether it’s economic headlines, tech disruption, or global news, it’s easy to get overwhelmed. If you’ve been wondering, “Is now the right time to make a move?” you’re not alone. And no, you're not overthinking it.
The truth is, while the headlines may stir fear, the data tells a different story. That’s where we come in.
A Quick Trip Through Real Estate History
Back in January 2015, the median list price for a home in King County was $449,000. Yep. Under half a million. If we had a time machine, we’d go back and buy three.
Fast forward to January 2020, and prices had jumped to $770,000. That’s an 8.28 percent annual appreciation. Then came COVID. Mortgage rates dropped to 2.5 percent as the Fed tried to keep the economy on life support. Suddenly, homes were hotter than Costco toilet paper.
The U.S. pumped over $814 billion in stimulus into the economy, and we entered one of the most inflated markets in recent memory. By March 2022, the median price in King County had hit $1 million.
Then came the pivot.
Interest Rates Take the Wheel
In an attempt to cool inflation, the Fed raised interest rates significantly. Mortgage rates followed, climbing from 2.5 percent to nearly 8 percent by November 2023. Affordability took a major hit. The Market Action Index, which measures market competitiveness, dropped from 100 in April 2022 to 47 by December.
In June 2022, the median price peaked at $1,188,000. By December, it had fallen to $948,000. That created a rare window for buyers who were paying attention.
Fast forward to today. It’s July 2025 and the median price is back up to $1.2 million.
“No crash. No collapse. Just a market doing what it’s always done: adjusting.”
So Why Didn’t the Market Crash?
The answer is simple. There aren’t enough homes for sale.
Homeowners with ultra-low interest rates aren’t rushing to sell. Why would they trade in a 2.5 percent mortgage for one closer to 7? That reluctance is keeping inventory tight, which in turn holds prices steady or pushes them higher.
“Buyers may have pulled back because of rates, but sellers have pulled back too. The result is a delicate balance that keeps the market stable, even in uncertain conditions.”
When Will Rates Come Down?
There’s a buzz in financial circles about the possibility of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stepping down earlier than the end of his term. If that happens and a new Fed chair is appointed under Trump’s administration, the expectation is a shift toward lowering interest rates.
While no one has a crystal ball, here's what that could mean for real estate:
Lower interest rates would make mortgages more affordable.
Buyer demand would likely surge, increasing competition.
Home prices would likely climb as more people jump back into the market.
“In short, if rates drop significantly, the market could heat up fast, just like it did when we saw rates fall during the pandemic.”
Why it Matters Right Now:
Buyers: Waiting could mean higher prices later—even if rates fall.
Sellers: Listing before the rush might give you a competitive edge while inventory is still tight.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Know Right Now
“Yes, there are big picture concerns. Tech layoffs. Global tension. AI disruption. But zoom in on the Pacific Northwest and the story shifts.”
Our region continues to be home to some of the most forward-thinking companies and brightest talent in the world. The fundamentals are strong. Demand is real. Inventory is limited.
If you're a buyer, this is a strategic moment. Much like what we saw in December of 2023. Prices have stalled for the last month and price decreases are up 35%. If rates come down in the next six months, now may be the best time to buy as there is less competition, slower pace and more long-term value.
If you're a seller, pricing and presentation are everything. While inventory is growing it remains historically low and the right home can still move quickly.
Here's the Bottom Line
“You don’t need to time the market perfectly. You need to understand it.”
Real estate is about strategy, not guesswork. Whether you're buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of it all, we're here to help you move forward with confidence.
Let’s talk when you’re ready.